Damascus and Assad now in the crosshairs of Syrian rebels

Opposition fighters have taken over Hama, a major city on the road to the capital, Damascus

The speed with which the situation in Syria has changed in recent days—despite being unresolved and unsatisfactory—has been nothing short of remarkable.

Syrian government officials and their supporters were still claiming that the army would hold its ground in Hama, even as insurgent forces were entering the city. Shortly thereafter, the Syrian military admitted it had withdrawn from Hama, conceding control of the city to rebel factions for the first time.

After taking two major cities in just one week, the insurgents, led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), are now targeting Homs. Tens of thousands are fleeing in anticipation of what seems to be the next significant battle.

The stakes have escalated dramatically for President Bashar al-Assad and his key backers, Russia and Iran. Homs holds far greater strategic importance than either Aleppo or Hama. It lies at a crossroads, connecting the west, where Assad's support base is concentrated, and the south, which leads to the capital, Damascus.

The momentum of the past week suggests that HTS, which spent years consolidating power in Idlib, is now gearing up for a direct challenge to Assad’s continued rule. In an interview with CNN, HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani confirmed that the rebels aim to overthrow the Assad regime.

As the conflict escalates, attention has shifted to whether Assad can withstand this renewed push to oust him from power. The Syrian army, which relies heavily on conscripts, might have lost the war years ago if not for outside intervention.

Syria's soldiers are underpaid, poorly equipped, and often demoralized, with desertion being a longstanding issue. Following the military's failures in Aleppo and Hama, Assad ordered a 50% pay raise for soldiers, but this measure is unlikely to reverse the tide.

While Russian planes provided support to Syrian forces in Hama, the military backing was insufficient to turn the situation around. This has led to speculation that Russia may be less able to play the game-changing role it did in 2015, due to the strain of its prolonged war in Ukraine, which has depleted its resources.

Despite this, Russia has compelling reasons to support Assad. President Putin's intervention in 2015 was crucial in preventing Assad's defeat and highlighted the failure of Western allies, particularly the US, to fulfill their promises to the rebels. Russia’s naval base in Tartus, Syria, its only military hub in the Mediterranean, remains strategically significant. If the rebels capture Homs, they could open a route to the coast, threatening the base.

Thus, it seems unlikely that Russia would withdraw support for Assad, especially considering its political and strategic interests, even if Assad's control shrinks from the 60% of Syria he currently holds.

Iran, too, plays a crucial role, particularly through the militias it backs, including Hezbollah, and the military expertise it provides. Despite Hezbollah’s weakened state after Israeli attacks in Lebanon, elite forces from the group have reportedly entered Syria and taken up positions in Homs.

Tehran appears to be distancing itself from direct confrontations in the region, which could limit its willingness to provide the level of military support to Assad that it did previously. There is speculation that Iranian-backed militias from Iraq might intervene, but both the Iraqi government and influential Shia leader Moqtada al-Sadr have cautioned against this.

Assad's political survival will depend not only on the strength of his armed forces and allies but also on the divisions within the opposition. Beyond HTS and Idlib factions, there are Kurdish-led forces in the northeast, the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army in the north, and other groups holding ground in various regions. The Islamic State (IS) group, still active in remote desert areas, could also attempt to capitalize on the situation.

A key factor in Assad’s continued survival has been the inability of rebel factions to unite. Assad and his supporters are hoping history will repeat itself. For now, support for Assad remains strong among several minority groups, including the Alawite sect, which fears the rise of jihadist forces, despite HTS renouncing its ties to al-Qaeda. Many still view HTS as an extremist group.

Ultimately, Assad's fate is likely to depend on the decisions of the major external players in Syria. Russia, Iran, and Turkey have previously negotiated over conflict zones, such as in Idlib, but the recent rapid escalation may have caught them all by surprise. These powers may soon need to reassess their positions and decide whether a Syria with or without Assad best serves their interests.