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| Francois Bayrou has long been a centrist ally of President Macron |
It has been nine days since French lawmakers ousted Michel Barnier as prime minister in a no-confidence vote. Macron had promised to appoint a replacement by the end of Thursday, but the decision was delayed. Bayrou, a key ally of Macron, is widely regarded as a potential successor. He is the mayor of a southwestern city and leader of the centrist MoDem party.
French politics has been at an impasse since Macron called snap parliamentary elections earlier this summer. When a new prime minister is named, it will mark Macron's fourth such appointment this year. A BFMTV poll conducted Thursday showed that 61% of French voters were concerned about the current political instability.
That afternoon, he met with Bayrou, 73, at the Élysée Palace for a nearly two-hour discussion. Meanwhile, a red carpet was being prepared at the prime minister's residence, Hôtel Matignon.
Despite the political turmoil, Macron has vowed to remain in office until the end of his second term in 2027. Should Bayrou be selected, the challenge will be to form a government that can avoid the same fate as Barnier’s, which collapsed in the National Assembly. Macron is likely to either seek support from the center-left or secure a pact to prevent the new prime minister from being ousted.
Macron has already held discussions with leaders from most major political parties, excluding the far-left France Unbowed (LFI) led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon and the far-right National Rally (RN) of Marine Le Pen.
Other contenders to replace Barnier, who served just three months as prime minister, include Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu and former center-left prime minister Bernard Cazeneuve. Former foreign minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, in his late 70s, has reportedly turned down the role.
Barnier was ousted after a coalition of left-wing MPs and Le Pen's RN rejected his proposals for €60bn in tax hikes and spending cuts, aiming to reduce France's budget deficit, which is expected to reach 6.1% of GDP this year.
Macron called for snap parliamentary elections following disappointing results in the EU elections in June, which led to a political deadlock in the French National Assembly, with three large blocs—left, center, and far-right—emerging.
Macron selected Barnier to lead a minority government, dependent on the National Rally for support, but that alliance has now collapsed. Macron aims to restore political stability without relying on Le Pen's party. Three center-left parties—the Socialists, Greens, and Communistshave distanced themselves from the far-left LFI and are negotiating with Macron to form a new government. However, they have insisted that a left-wing prime minister be appointed to join a broad-based government.
Greens leader Marine Tondelier stated that she did not support Bayrou, arguing that a centrist candidate from the party that lost the parliamentary elections should not hold the prime minister's post. Relations between the center-left and the radical LFI have worsened as LFI leader Mélenchon urged his allies to avoid any coalition deal with Macron. In response, Socialist leader Olivier Faure dismissed Mélenchon's objections, saying, "The more Mélenchon shouts, the less he’s heard."
Meanwhile, Marine Le Pen has called for the incoming government to consider her party's policies on cost-of-living issues and to develop a budget that accommodates each party's core concerns.
Barnier’s caretaker government has introduced a bill to extend the 2024 budget into next year, but a new budget for 2025 will need to be approved once the next prime minister takes office.
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